Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe622…7635 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-8%) realized −$61 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$71
sports 23% −$10
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +21.6% +10.0% 47% 40% -7.0%
≤30d 44 -4.5% -13.6% 36% 34% -21.4%
≤90d 44 -4.5% -13.6% 36% 34% -21.4%
all 44 -4.5% -13.6% 36% 34% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 34% -21.4%
10% -21.9% 32% -28.9%
15% -29.4% 27% -35.8%
20% -36.3% 23% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage12d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $87 $75 −$12 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $55 $63 +$8 (+14%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-7%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $16 −$4 -27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 $0 -7%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$13 +244%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$18 +118%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +110%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $8 +$16 +196%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$7 -47%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$9 +35%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$15 +33%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +340%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$29 +235%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 81¢ $15 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.92 · official $304.51 · 111 history records