trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +37.3% | +24.3% | 86% | 86% | +19.3% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +17.2% | +6.1% | 72% | 67% | -4.3% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +16.4% | +5.3% | 74% | 63% | -7.7% |
| all | 19 | +16.4% | +5.3% | 74% | 63% | -7.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +5.3% | 63% | -7.7% |
| 10% | -4.8% | 53% | -16.5% |
| 15% | -14.0% | 47% | -24.6% |
| 20% | -22.4% | 32% | -32.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $14 | $10 | −$4 (-27%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 19¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+20%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 25 | $2 | +$1 | +67% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 24 | $2 | +$1 | +55% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 24 | $10 | +$5 | +46% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $6 | +$9 | +140% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 21 | $5 | +$2 | +36% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $5 | +$2 | +40% |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $1 | +$2 | +233% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $18 | +$5 | +25% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Jun 15 | $5 | +$4 | +73% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | Jun 12 | $4 | +$2 | +56% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 13 | $499 | +$6 | +1% |