Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:15:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E6 0xe622…9c26 other 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$54 (-9%) realized −$50 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% +$8
other 16% −$4
tech 1% +$2
world 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.3% +24.3% 86% 86% +19.3%
≤30d 18 +17.2% +6.1% 72% 67% -4.3%
≤90d 19 +16.4% +5.3% 74% 63% -7.7%
all 19 +16.4% +5.3% 74% 63% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 63% -7.7%
10% -4.8% 53% -16.5%
15% -14.0% 47% -24.6%
20% -22.4% 32% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage74d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$9 +140%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +9%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$5 +25%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $499 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 6d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 15¢ $5 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $11 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 10d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $4 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.22 · official $12.22 (match) · 91 history records