Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe623…9800 crypto 360 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$816 (+4%) realized +$809 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%151W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$614
7 days+$354
14 days−$272
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$950
sports 22% −$896
other 2% −$71
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +10.9% +0.3% 48% 47% -1.5%
≤30d 337 +6.5% -3.7% 42% 42% -7.9%
≤90d 359 +4.6% -5.4% 42% 42% -9.2%
all 359 +4.6% -5.4% 42% 42% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 42% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 41% -17.8%
15% -22.7% 41% -25.8%
20% -30.3% 39% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$51 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$809
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses151 / 208
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions1
Markets (closed)359 / 360
History coverage38d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 46¢ 52¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$15 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$41 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$35 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$27 +106%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$71 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$21 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$51 +99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$54 +53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$162 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$41 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$38 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$67 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$13 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$23 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$59 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$45 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $207 +$183 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$61 +118%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$93 +92%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$35 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$27 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$101 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$32 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$33 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$16 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$30 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $76 −$73 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$41 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$20 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$73 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$91 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $78 +$93 +120%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$69 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$24 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $76 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $24 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 10¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $102 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $41 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $155 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $22 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.65 · official $56.10 (match) · 1269 history records