trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +14.1% | +3.2% | 100% | 67% | +5.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -15.9% | -23.9% | 75% | 50% | +0.9% |
| all | 27 | +20.3% | +8.9% | 70% | 59% | +55.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +8.9% | 59% | +55.0% |
| 10% | -1.6% | 37% | +40.1% |
| 15% | -11.1% | 33% | +26.6% |
| 20% | -19.8% | 33% | +14.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | Yes | 85¢ | 84¢ | $2,000 | $1,972 | −$28 (-1%) |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 51¢ | 42¢ | $843 | $704 | −$139 (-17%) |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $300 | $209 | −$91 (-30%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 55¢ | 38¢ | $300 | $206 | −$94 (-31%) |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | $50 | $51 | +$1 (+1%) |
| RFK Jr. Out by December 31? | Yes | 65¢ | 50¢ | $51 | $39 | −$12 (-23%) |
| Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 98¢ | $19 | $24 | +$6 (+32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 16 | $100 | +$20 | +20% |
| Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between | Jun 16 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 16 | $261 | +$41 | +16% |
| Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between | May 14 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at leas | May 14 | $315 | +$44 | +14% |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter arrest Zara Larsson during Juno? | Apr 27 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter arrest Madonna during Juno? | Apr 10 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? | Apr 09 | $120 | +$18 | +15% |
| Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois | Mar 19 | $350 | +$445 | +127% |
| Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? | Feb 28 | $300 | +$286 | +95% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $1,000 | +$587 | +59% |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $100 | +$400 | +400% |
| Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec | Feb 19 | $83 | −$83 | -100% |
| Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026? | Feb 19 | $300 | +$69 | +23% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 10 | $100 | +$5 | +5% |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jan 06 | $20 | +$27 | +133% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | Dec 26 | $200 | +$31 | +16% |
| Will Bill Ackman say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during the X Space event on | Dec 19 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Eric Adams endorse Sliwa? | Dec 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 19 | $220 | −$220 | -100% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 19 | $260 | −$260 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | Dec 19 | $671 | −$671 | -100% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Dec 08 | $380 | +$84 | +22% |
| Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? | Oct 24 | $22,625 | +$13,369 | +59% |
| Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15? | Sep 28 | $1,720 | +$1,784 | +104% |
| Will Eric Adams drop out? | Sep 28 | $3,200 | +$1,844 | +58% |
| Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30? | Sep 28 | $5,194 | +$9,077 | +175% |