Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E6 0xe62c…adc5 crypto 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$489 (+2%) realized +$489 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate77%203W / 59L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$19
14 days+$230
30 days+$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$384
weather 10% −$105
sports 9% −$74
other 5% +$114
finance 2% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.0% -17.7% 67% 58% -6.5%
≤30d 112 +7.4% -2.9% 82% 62% -5.1%
≤90d 262 +3.7% -6.1% 77% 62% -7.5%
all 262 +3.7% -6.1% 77% 62% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 62% -7.5%
10% -15.1% 40% -16.4%
15% -23.3% 19% -24.4%
20% -30.8% 8% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$57 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$489
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses203 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage51d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Jun 22 $132 +$31 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $111 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $137 −$14 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $121 +$16 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$14 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $34 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $493 +$66 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$25 +25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $400 +$48 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $362 +$41 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5PM ET Jun 07 $340 +$29 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET Jun 07 $323 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $272 +$51 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $232 +$33 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4AM ET Jun 07 $366 −$127 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $303 +$38 +13%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $352 −$24 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1AM ET Jun 07 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $303 +$49 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10AM ET Jun 06 $284 +$19 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $262 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $252 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 06 $220 +$42 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $216 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7AM ET Jun 06 $161 +$55 +34%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $140 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $96 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $86 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Jun 05 $68 +$19 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $59 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Jun 05 $44 +$8 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $163 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $111 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 61¢ $122 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 66¢ $137 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $137 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $121 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $16 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $121 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $124 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $527 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $502 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $38 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $34 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $105 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 544 history records