Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe62c…97e1 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,652 (+24%) realized +$2,931 · open −$279
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 38L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$325
7 days+$3,370
14 days+$3,648
30 days+$2,549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$1,338
sports 36% +$3,269
crypto 4% +$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -29.1% -35.8% 32% 32% +38.0%
≤30d 60 -25.0% -32.2% 37% 37% +12.4%
≤90d 60 -25.0% -32.2% 37% 37% +12.4%
all 60 -25.0% -32.2% 37% 37% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 37% +12.4%
10% -38.7% 37% +1.7%
15% -44.6% 33% -8.2%
20% -50.0% 28% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$98 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$2,931
Unrealized−$279
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 38
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage21d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 49¢ 14¢ $290 $85 −$205 (-71%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 1¢ $75 $1 −$74 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $498 +$339 +68%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $168 −$16 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $171 +$84 +49%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$19 +37%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$18 +119%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$22 +146%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $263 +$235 +89%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $52 −$51 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$15 +101%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$22 -43%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 +$37 +146%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $164 +$153 +93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,793 +$3,675 +132%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $993 −$983 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $107 −$105 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $188 +$161 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$81 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $379 +$235 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $178 +$203 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $108 −$105 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $182 +$79 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $122 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 26¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $837 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $498 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 32¢ $0 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 32¢ $152 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $168 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 21¢ $10 23h
Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $3 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $5 23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $5 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $255 25h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 14¢ $15 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $171 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.59 · official $86.09 (match) · 116 history records