Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe62c…37c5 weather 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$130 (+11%) realized +$115 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$44
14 days+$104
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$201
weather 46% −$60
crypto 7% −$23
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.8% +3.9% 40% 40% +0.9%
≤30d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 41% +3.8%
≤90d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 41% +3.8%
all 17 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 41% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 41% +3.8%
10% -19.1% 41% -6.1%
15% -26.9% 35% -15.2%
20% -34.1% 35% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$32 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions17
Markets (closed)17 / 34
History coverage14d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Yes 49¢ 99¢ $40 $80 +$40 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $54 $68 +$13 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 21? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $27 $16 −$11 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? Yes 45¢ 55¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+21%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 21? Yes 35¢ 37¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $134 +$158 +118%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $38 +$96 +256%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $65 +$107 +166%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$14 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$8 +89%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $57 +$36 +63%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $22 −$3 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 20h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $28 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $28 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 42¢ $56 21h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 41¢ $76 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $134 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $38 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $134 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $64 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 99¢ $33 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $17 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 53¢ $18 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $65 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 11d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $19 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.21 · official $445.21 (match) · 51 history records