Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe62e…4f43 crypto 1024 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,490 (-9%) realized −$1,610 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%457W / 567L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day52.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$164
14 days−$762
30 days−$1,317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,608
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -21.5% -29.0% 43% 33% -21.1%
≤30d 535 -31.0% -37.6% 37% 31% -31.1%
≤90d 1024 -17.5% -25.3% 45% 39% -18.6%
all 1024 -17.5% -25.3% 45% 39% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 39% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 31% -26.4%
15% -39.0% 23% -33.5%
20% -45.0% 17% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,610
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses457 / 567
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1024 / 1024
History coverage56d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$12 +581%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records