Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe630…5d81 crypto 947 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$650 (+4%) realized +$650 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate69%654W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$232
other 2% −$91
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -72.9% -75.5% 10% 10% -30.2%
≤30d 10 -72.9% -75.5% 10% 10% -30.2%
≤90d 954 -8.3% -17.0% 69% 42% -11.3%
all 954 -8.3% -17.0% 69% 42% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 42% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 28% -19.8%
15% -32.2% 19% -27.6%
20% -38.9% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$650
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses654 / 300
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)954 / 947
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 954 Trades
no open positions (107 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $187 −$63 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $56 +$13 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $144 −$27 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 06 $133 −$70 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 06 $209 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 06 $199 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 05 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 05 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 05 $243 +$50 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 05 $202 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 05 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 05 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 05 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 05 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 04 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 04 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 04 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 03 $39 −$31 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -95%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 30 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 29 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 29 $113 −$94 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 29 $93 +$70 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 29 $90 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 29 $108 −$105 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 29 $81 +$25 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 29 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 29 $87 −$85 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 29 $104 +$103 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 29 $113 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 29 $67 +$50 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 29 $46 +$21 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 29 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 29 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 29 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 29 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 29 $2 +$3 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $67 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 36¢ $57 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $117 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $117 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $144 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $72 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $35 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $61 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $172 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $23 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $166 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $132 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $18 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $140 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records