Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe633…e43d crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-7%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -12.5% -20.8% 38% 36% -20.5%
≤30d 88 -14.4% -22.6% 38% 35% -20.9%
≤90d 88 -14.4% -22.6% 38% 35% -20.9%
all 88 -14.4% -22.6% 38% 35% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 35% -20.9%
10% -30.0% 33% -28.4%
15% -36.7% 27% -35.3%
20% -42.9% 22% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage18d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$18 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $33 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $29 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $27 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $13 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records