Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe635…4ae8 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-5%) realized +$2 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$22
sports 38% +$10
world 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 27% -11.9%
≤30d 15 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 27% -11.9%
≤90d 15 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 27% -11.9%
all 15 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 27% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 27% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 27% -20.3%
15% -28.5% 20% -28.0%
20% -35.5% 20% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-13%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $2 +$2 +91%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$12 +100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -84%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -86%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +303%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 16m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 30¢ $4 17m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 20m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 26m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 27m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 28m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 53m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 17¢ $1 2h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $3 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.13 · official $39.13 (match) · 45 history records