Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E6
0xe639…082a
economics · 48 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$700,852 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$669,156 · open +$6,026
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$636,002
Realized+$669,156
Unrealized+$6,026
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses31 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)38 / 48
History coverage99d
Avg bet$383,477
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 10 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269,000
7 days+$269,139
14 days+$275,327
30 days+$287,859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $219,698 $220,315 +$617 (+0%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $169,493 $170,546 +$1,053 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $99,251 $99,350 +$99 (+0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $70,758 $74,297 +$3,539 (+5%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 99¢ 100¢ $38,940 $39,021 +$81 (+0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $18,413 $18,914 +$500 (+3%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $10,711 $10,749 +$38 (+0%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 75¢ 76¢ $2,347 $2,382 +$36 (+2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $365 $428 +$63 (+17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $10,185,350 +$269,000 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32,777 +$132 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2,492 +$8 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $670,658 +$3,361 +0%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? Jun 01 $5,451 +$38 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $115,729 +$719 +1%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 31 $46,746 +$284 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 30 $170,074 +$1,784 +1%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $191,013 +$191 +0%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $3,770 +$101 +3%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? May 22 $19,053 +$93 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 16 $31,363 +$379 +1%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $3 −$1 -30%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $4,281 +$1,953 +46%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 15 $246,459 +$3,564 +1%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10,813 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $3,343 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $103,173 +$937 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $249,731 +$5,211 +2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $18,250 +$89 +0%
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $15,508 +$16 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $7,650 −$483 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 12 $330 −$50 -15%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 11 $687 −$11 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $539,460 +$540 +0%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 08 $1,915 +$2 +0%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? May 02 $4,815 +$1,166 +24%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? May 01 $250 +$2 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $888,726 +$2,674 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $882,254 +$6,572 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $883,451 +$2,399 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $796,835 +$13,378 +2%
Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31? Apr 01 $138 +$2 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $23,893 +$187 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31? Apr 01 $48,374 +$194 +0%
Will three people dissent the March Fed decision? Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $1,161,719 +$354,699 +30%
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision? Mar 18 $1,043 +$43 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 56% +$270,322
economics 18% +$372,304
world 15% +$11,051
other 7% +$18,144
crypto 4% +$3,361
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 52m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $4 58m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $126,472 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $34 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $26 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $99 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $124 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $248 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $595 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 21 +1.5% -8.2% 86% 5% -7.4%
≤90d 38 -0.7% -10.1% 82% 8% -6.0%
all 38 -0.7% -10.1% 82% 8% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 8% -6.0%
10% -18.7% 8% -15.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 3% -23.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $636,002.26 · official $636,002.15 (match) · 3500 history records