Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe63b…df08 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate68%45W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$17
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$49
other 29% −$84
sports 3% −$21
world 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +6.3% -3.8% 81% 31% -8.6%
≤30d 64 -5.8% -14.8% 69% 33% -11.7%
≤90d 66 -7.0% -15.9% 68% 33% -11.6%
all 66 -7.0% -15.9% 68% 33% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 33% -11.6%
10% -23.9% 20% -20.1%
15% -31.3% 15% -27.8%
20% -38.0% 9% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses45 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage32d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$4 +351%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$46 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $19 +$3 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $26 +$3 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $17 +$8 +48%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $40 −$40 -99%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $60 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $54 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $33 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 37h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $23 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records