Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe640…c7bc sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%36W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$7
politics 37% −$4
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 63 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses36 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage562d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $220 in April? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Amazon reach $276 in March? Apr 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of January? Feb 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of November? Dec 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 10 $2,227 −$2 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $2,154 −$2 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 09 $2,334 −$2 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 09 $2,342 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 25? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $210 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 18 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on Feb 28? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $774 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $772 −$1 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $779 −$1 -0%
Will ETHBTC be more than .033 on February 7? Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $190 on January 17? Jan 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will LA wildfires burn 70-80k acres by Sunday? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 11 $2 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Rangers Dec 13 $8 $0 -2%
Bengals vs. Titans Dec 13 $38 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Dec 13 $13 $0 -0%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 13 $19 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Jazz Dec 12 $6 $0 +0%
Jets vs. Jaguars Dec 12 $18 $0 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders Dec 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-14? Dec 12 $2 $0 -0%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? Dec 12 $4 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Google dip to $220 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 65d
Will Amazon reach $276 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 88d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $37 149d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of November? BUY No 100¢ $42 209d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,225 226d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,227 226d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,152 226d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,154 226d
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $2,331 226d
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $2,334 226d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $2,340 226d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $2,342 226d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $31 247d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 99¢ $2 300d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? BUY No 100¢ $2 331d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 361d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 98¢ $2 394d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 395d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 424d
Bitcoin all time high in April? BUY No 99¢ $1 424d
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 424d
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 425d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 432d
Will Solana hit $210 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 456d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 457d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 467d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $773 477d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.99 · official $32.99 (match) · 170 history records