Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe644…6bff politics 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$198 (-0%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$995per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$16
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$55
other 37% −$38
culture 3% −$3
economics 2% $0
sports 2% −$122
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -6.4% -15.3% 7% 4% -9.8%
all 81 -6.4% -15.3% 7% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 4% -9.8%
10% -23.4% 4% -18.4%
15% -30.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -37.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,204) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage77d
Avg bet$995
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $374 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,235 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,786 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $238 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $380 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $405 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $560 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,032 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,819 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 20 $39 +$38 +97%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 20 $988 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $2,259 −$2 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $2,267 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $2,168 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,968 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $2,215 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,849 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 16 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $2,060 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $1,133 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $401 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $374 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $374 4h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $968 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $969 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $822 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $824 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $677 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $678 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $705 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $706 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $706 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $708 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $952 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $953 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $719 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $720 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $689 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $690 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $710 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $711 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $775 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $776 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $772 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $773 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $458 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $459 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $431 20d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $432 20d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $348 22d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $348 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records