Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe645…3157 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$5
other 17% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.6% -7.1% 50% 20% -10.3%
≤30d 22 +0.4% -9.1% 45% 9% -10.1%
≤90d 22 +0.4% -9.1% 45% 9% -10.1%
all 50 -1.1% -10.5% 44% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 8% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 4% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage404d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $1 $0 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $4 $0 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $7 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $29 −$3 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 10 $120 +$2 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025? Jul 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jul 01 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 25 $2 −$2 -73%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 24 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 21 $1 $0 +14%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 19 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on June Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $6 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $5 +$1 +33%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 19 $2 −$1 -29%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $41 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $42 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $44 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records