Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe645…fbde other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$12 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$62
world 19% +$31
economics 1% −$13
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.7% 33% 33% -44.8%
≤30d 8 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 50% -32.5%
≤90d 35 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 43% -12.1%
all 35 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 43% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 43% -12.1%
10% -22.1% 29% -20.6%
15% -29.6% 17% -28.2%
20% -36.5% 11% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage81d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $19 −$7 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $16 +$5 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -96%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 +$6 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -28%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $10 −$7 -68%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 03 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $34 +$36 +105%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $44 +$3 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $28 +$8 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $50 +$4 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $32 +$4 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $403 −$225 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $0 +$1 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $93 +$54 +58%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $110 +$39 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 06 $69 +$14 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 04 $171 +$41 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 04 $19 −$7 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $144 +$13 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $17 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 11d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 11d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $14 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $4 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $6 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $11 12d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $103 33d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 41d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.67 · official $96.67 (match) · 171 history records