Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe645…75d9 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1
politics 20% $0
other 19% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 13 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 0% -9.2%
all 34 -4.1% -13.2% 47% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -21.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -29.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.72 per $1 lost it wins $4.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage454d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $3 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $33 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $14 $0 +3%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025? Apr 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Trump orders U.S. prisoners to El Salvador before April? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $3 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 50¢ $3 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $12 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $17 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $31 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $13 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $22 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $35 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $31 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $32 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $34 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $11 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.63 · official $31.96 (match) · 93 history records