Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe648…675f sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$448 (+5%) realized +$431 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%27W / 29L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$236est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$7
14 days+$63
30 days+$421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 29% -9.4%
≤30d 56 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 32% -4.5%
≤90d 56 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 32% -4.5%
all 56 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 32% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 32% -4.5%
10% -26.1% 27% -13.6%
15% -33.3% 23% -22.0%
20% -39.8% 21% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$41 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$431
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses27 / 29
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage26d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jan Choinski 17¢ 18¢ $192 $209 +$17 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $609 −$23 -4%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $40 +$80 +203%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $80 +$68 +85%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $227 +$10 +4%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $227 +$13 +6%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $181 +$68 +38%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $298 −$38 -13%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $245 −$63 -26%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $67 +$53 +79%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $297 −$17 -6%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $269 +$199 +74%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $54 −$53 -98%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $53 +$70 +133%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $290 +$46 +16%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $205 +$5 +2%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 14 $362 +$42 +12%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $42 +$3 +7%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $249 −$34 -14%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $9 +$17 +193%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $53 +$1 +2%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $51 +$49 +96%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 11 $155 −$3 -2%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 11 $65 −$65 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $265 −$45 -17%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $76 +$54 +70%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 09 $116 +$4 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $231 −$28 -12%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 09 $85 +$22 +26%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 08 $15 +$4 +25%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $58 +$72 +122%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $61 −$60 -99%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $61 −$60 -98%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 05 $203 −$8 -4%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $48 +$62 +127%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 05 $61 −$61 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $256 +$417 +163%
Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $372 −$46 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $98 −$49 -50%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $315 +$15 +5%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 17¢ $67 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 17¢ $130 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Eva Lys 36¢ $585 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 37¢ $226 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 37¢ $161 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 37¢ $222 2d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 33¢ $16 3d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 33¢ $16 3d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 33¢ $7 3d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Sebastian Ofner 48¢ $53 3d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Sebastian Ofner 48¢ $9 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 30¢ $30 3d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $79 4d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $1 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 46¢ $237 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $2 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $202 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $1 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $10 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $8 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $2 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $2 4d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 54¢ $241 5d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 51¢ $5 5d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 51¢ $19 5d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 51¢ $1 5d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 51¢ $125 5d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 51¢ $3 5d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 51¢ $5 5d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 51¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.18 · official $209.18 (match) · 325 history records