Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E6 0xe649…fffd other 116 markets active 20h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 104L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$17
politics 14% −$2
economics 6% −$1
sports 6% +$37
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 +3.4% -6.5% 10% 8% -9.4%
all 116 +3.4% -6.5% 10% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 8% -9.4%
10% -15.4% 8% -18.1%
15% -23.6% 7% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×11.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage86d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $98 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $288 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $366 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $188 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $96 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $98 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $195 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 25 $90 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 20h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 23h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 44h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 47h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 14d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $11 15d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $11 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 17d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records