trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $53 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 08 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $83 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 27 | $14 | −$14 | -99% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | Apr 17 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 16 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | Apr 15 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 13 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? | Apr 11 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 10 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? | Mar 31 | $14 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 28 | $2 | +$1 | +28% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 26 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 36% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +0.6% | -8.9% | 29% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +0.6% | -8.9% | 29% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 27 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 41% | 4% | -11.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.6% | 4% | -11.0% |
| 10% | -20.0% | 4% | -19.6% |
| 15% | -27.8% | 0% | -27.3% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 0% | -34.5% |