Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe651…0a52 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
other 32% +$2
politics 8% $0
crypto 5% +$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 31 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage474d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $29 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $30 −$2 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +2%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $16 $0 +0%
Another crypto hack over $1b before April? Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 18 $16 $0 -0%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 16 $16 $0 +0%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $29 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $29 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $28 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $28 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $28 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $29 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $29 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $29 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $19 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $30 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $17 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $10 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $20 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $30 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $17 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $2 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $10 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $28 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.54 · official $28.54 (match) · 72 history records