Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E6 0xe652…d114 crypto 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,587 (+5%) realized +$834 · open +$1,753
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%39W / 51L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$573per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,884now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$890
7 days+$500
14 days+$500
30 days−$2,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 65% +$2,006
crypto 17% +$183
sports 8% −$817
other 8% +$98
tech 2% +$406
politics 0% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 50% +16.4%
≤30d 13 -22.4% -29.8% 38% 31% -25.8%
≤90d 53 -19.8% -27.4% 34% 26% -15.6%
all 90 -5.9% -14.9% 43% 33% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 33% -9.3%
10% -23.0% 29% -18.0%
15% -30.4% 27% -25.9%
20% -37.3% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$674) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$231 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$3,884
Realized+$834
Unrealized+$1,753
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses39 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions7
Markets (closed)90 / 97
History coverage200d
Avg bet$573
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $168 in June? No 36¢ 99¢ $639 $1,756 +$1,117 (+175%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? No 69¢ 99¢ $811 $1,163 +$353 (+44%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 61¢ 98¢ $325 $523 +$198 (+61%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 in July? No 42¢ 52¢ $168 $210 +$42 (+25%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $191 Week of June 29 2026? No 19¢ 26¢ $85 $118 +$33 (+38%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $193 Week of June 29 2026? No 15¢ 18¢ $57 $64 +$7 (+13%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 29 2026? No 19¢ 20¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 29 $495 +$342 +69%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 29 $757 +$548 +72%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $222 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $146 −$143 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $162 −$157 -97%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 22 202 Jun 24 $126 −$123 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 07 $1,763 −$172 -10%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 05 $833 −$309 -37%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $160 in June? Jun 04 $771 −$744 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 02 $339 +$221 +65%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 02 $1,461 −$12 -1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 02 $1,635 −$1,602 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 01 $2,786 +$8 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 February 9-15? May 29 $63 −$20 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1? May 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Solana reach $90 February 23-March 1? May 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? May 29 $503 −$369 -73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? May 29 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Solana reach $90 in March? May 29 $123 −$123 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $26 in January? May 29 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January? May 29 $487 −$163 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? May 29 $236 −$236 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? May 29 $384 −$384 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 29 $684 −$69 -10%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19? May 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 29 $501 −$501 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? May 29 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? May 29 $530 −$530 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 29 $605 −$605 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $648 +$818 +126%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 23 $415 −$109 -26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 20 $3,796 +$222 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 19 $2,598 +$40 +2%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May? May 17 $1,383 −$331 -24%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May? May 17 $142 +$157 +110%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 11 $139 +$68 +49%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $170 in May? May 07 $674 −$143 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 07 $1,000 −$433 -43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 05 $878 +$159 +18%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 27 2026? May 02 $50 +$48 +97%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? May 02 $280 +$953 +340%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 02 $1,871 +$1,361 +73%
Will Google reach $355 in April? Apr 24 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 24 $34 −$32 -96%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 24 $70 −$69 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? Apr 23 $465 −$338 -73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 14 $548 +$645 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $193 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 15¢ $59 2h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 19¢ $48 2h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $191 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 19¢ $88 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 100¢ $837 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,305 3h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 in July? BUY No 42¢ $172 41h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 39¢ $63 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 28¢ $39 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 29¢ $122 5d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 33¢ $84 5d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 22 202 BUY No 41¢ $126 5d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $222 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 66¢ $67 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 61¢ $330 6d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? BUY No 69¢ $821 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 58¢ $495 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 62¢ $1,591 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 67¢ $1,763 23d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 34¢ $524 23d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 49¢ $833 25d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $160 in June? SELL No 4¢ $10 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $559 26d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $1,449 26d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $160 in June? BUY No 47¢ $771 27d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 50¢ $1,635 27d
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $168 in June? BUY No 36¢ $655 27d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $1,461 27d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $2,794 27d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $2,786 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? SELL No 32¢ $305 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 43¢ $648 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,883.86 · official $3,883.86 (match) · 257 history records