Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E6 0xe65c…52ca sports 459 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+2%) realized +$76 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%197W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$96
14 days+$86
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$63
world 37% +$39
other 23% +$22
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +32.4% +19.8% 57% 36% +3.9%
≤30d 171 -15.3% -23.3% 51% 43% -5.3%
≤90d 413 -11.4% -19.9% 46% 40% -8.3%
all 447 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 39% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 39% -8.1%
10% -25.3% 32% -16.9%
15% -32.5% 26% -24.9%
20% -39.2% 22% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses197 / 250
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions12
Markets (closed)447 / 459
History coverage101d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+21%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 28¢ 8¢ $30 $8 −$21 (-72%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Spread: GV CD San José (-2.5) CDT RealOruro 96¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Spread: CDT RealOruro (-2.5) GV CD San José 98¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
CDT RealOruro vs. GV CD San José: O/U 3.5 Under 94¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
CDT RealOruro vs. GV CD San José: O/U 4.5 Under 96¢ 50¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-24? No 71¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Club Guabirá win on 2026-05-24? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 189 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 25 $35 +$37 +106%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $45 −$17 -38%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 25 $94 −$44 -46%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $84 +$44 +53%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $255 +$30 +12%
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit Jun 24 $9 +$42 +472%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $6 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-23? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -70%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $96 +$10 +10%
Spread: Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$2 -48%
Spread: Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-23? Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +46%
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: CSD Colo-Colo (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 40% ahead of Google’s classified circuit Jun 10 $101 +$12 +12%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 07 $4 +$1 +42%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 +$2 +48%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 06 $4 +$1 +16%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +79%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $4 +$1 +34%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 +$2 +52%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $2 +$3 +152%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 06 $3 +$2 +62%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Gibraltar (-2.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 −$2 -98%
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Nara Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $4 +$1 +42%
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Nara Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $4 +$1 +17%
Spread: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5) Jun 06 $4 +$1 +42%
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Nara Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 +$3 +109%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $4 +$1 +24%
Spread: Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-1.5) Jun 06 $4 +$1 +40%
Spread: Yokohama FC (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 +$2 +48%
Spread: Yokohama FC (-2.5) Jun 06 $4 +$1 +17%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 39¢ $72 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $28 1h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu SELL Yes 4¢ $50 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $96 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $45 3h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY Yes 8¢ $24 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $46 3h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY Yes 7¢ $28 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $94 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $43 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $20 16h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $48 16h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 27¢ $3 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 82¢ $82 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 81¢ $40 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 80¢ $46 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 79¢ $47 20h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 20¢ $25 29h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 17¢ $10 29h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 66¢ $23 29h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 12¢ $12 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $58 30h
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit SELL No 84¢ $41 30h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 66¢ $10 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $7 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 75¢ $20 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.89 · official $58.69 (match) · 857 history records