Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe65d…db4e crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$151 (-38%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$26
other 27% −$27
crypto 14% −$17
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 50% +9.1%
≤30d 11 -18.9% -26.6% 45% 45% +0.4%
≤90d 14 -28.9% -35.7% 43% 36% -25.5%
all 14 -28.9% -35.7% 43% 36% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 36% -25.5%
10% -41.9% 36% -32.6%
15% -47.5% 36% -39.1%
20% -52.6% 29% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage90d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$33 +107%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +56%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $97 +$42 +44%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 28 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 28 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 16 $3 $0 +2%
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 50¢ $79 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 69¢ $97 12h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 23d
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) BUY Rockets 53¢ $100 64d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 89d
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) BUY Trail Blazers 50¢ $2 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records