Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe65e…b719 crypto 1136 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,116 (+3%) realized +$1,116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%565W / 574L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,236
7 days+$1,227
14 days+$1,227
30 days+$1,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$1,304
other 17% +$1,784
sports 8% +$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -9.7% -18.3% 74% 46% +1.8%
≤30d 134 -8.8% -17.5% 69% 51% +1.6%
≤90d 1139 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 43% -9.2%
all 1139 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 43% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 43% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 38% -17.9%
15% -31.0% 32% -25.8%
20% -37.8% 26% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses565 / 574
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1139 / 1136
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1139 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$74 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $397 −$397 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $215 −$227 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,011 +$508 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,575 −$1,568 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $480 +$520 +108%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $308 −$306 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $766 +$334 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $275 +$225 +82%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,507 +$2,548 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $295 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $130 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $222 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $94 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $59 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $262 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $1,003 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $17 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $120 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $90 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $63 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $148 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $558 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $17 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $52 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $11 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $23 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records