Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe660…f522 crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-1%) realized −$86 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,416
7 days+$468
14 days+$587
30 days+$587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$1,772
sports 20% +$1,826
other 10% −$42
world 1% +$10
politics 1% +$151
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 35% -0.4%
≤30d 30 +6.9% -3.3% 37% 37% +0.6%
≤90d 71 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 44% -9.1%
all 72 +5.5% -4.6% 44% 44% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 44% -8.6%
10% -13.7% 43% -17.4%
15% -22.1% 42% -25.4%
20% -29.7% 42% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$165 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 40
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage111d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $510 +$651 +128%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $102 +$125 +123%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 +$563 +549%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$176 +172%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $305 −$216 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $462 −$462 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $511 +$1,412 +276%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $102 +$79 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$198 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$236 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $311 −$152 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $56 +$194 +345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 21 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 21 $60 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 21 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 21 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 21 $400 +$440 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 21 $400 +$363 +91%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 21 $50 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 21 $100 +$89 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 21 $500 +$425 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $1,161 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $51 14h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 14h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $666 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 30h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $102 38h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $510 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $102 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $102 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $511 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 32¢ $178 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 18¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $102 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $341 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.33 · official $108.33 (match) · 209 history records