Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe667…6117 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,087 (+17%) realized +$2,087 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$194
7 days+$230
14 days+$815
30 days+$1,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,828
other 44% +$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.2% -16.0% 40% 40% +1.7%
≤30d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 62% +3.8%
≤90d 28 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 50% +6.3%
all 28 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 50% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 50% +6.3%
10% -14.8% 43% -3.9%
15% -23.0% 29% -13.2%
20% -30.6% 29% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$561) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$251 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,087
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage53d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $803 +$116 +14%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $316 −$310 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $332 +$829 +250%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $308 −$300 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $108 −$105 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,016 +$705 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $218 +$153 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $771 −$755 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,024 +$148 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $561 +$128 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,662 +$520 +31%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 May 23 $805 +$183 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 17 $123 −$120 -97%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $90 −$88 -98%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $273 −$270 -99%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 07 $384 +$201 +52%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 07 $163 −$160 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 May 07 $123 −$120 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $135 −$133 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $362 +$1,825 +504%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $345 −$340 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $394 +$206 +52%
Will Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? May 03 $76 +$132 +172%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $458 −$458 -100%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? May 02 $43 +$31 +72%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $803 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $214 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $332 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 15¢ $308 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 20¢ $108 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1,008 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1,008 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $218 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $771 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 87¢ $1,024 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $561 10d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 75¢ $655 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 76¢ $1,007 23d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 40¢ $102 29d
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $805 30d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 10¢ $123 36d
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $90 44d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? BUY No 60¢ $273 45d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? BUY No 34¢ $163 46d
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $123 46d
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $384 46d
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $135 46d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $162 47d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $184 47d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $54 47d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $102 47d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $205 47d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $394 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records