Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E6 0xe668…8a94 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL −$740 (-7%) realized −$743 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$697now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$314
7 days−$223
14 days−$991
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,373
other 34% −$1,834
crypto 12% +$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -22.0%
≤30d 41 +61.4% +46.0% 37% 34% -14.8%
≤90d 41 +61.4% +46.0% 37% 34% -14.8%
all 41 +61.4% +46.0% 37% 34% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.0% 34% -14.8%
10% +32.1% 29% -23.0%
15% +19.3% 29% -30.4%
20% +7.6% 24% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +165% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$191 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$697
Realized−$743
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage17d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $350 $353 +$3 (+1%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $236 $242 +$6 (+3%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Over 8¢ 8¢ $58 $54 −$4 (-6%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $252 +$120 +48%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $138 +$193 +140%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $184 −$181 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $508 −$500 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U Jun 25 $332 +$361 +108%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $120 −$118 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $108 −$105 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $154 −$150 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $254 −$248 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $108 −$105 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $235 −$230 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $143 −$140 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $144 +$597 +413%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $169 −$165 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $227 −$221 -97%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $694 −$680 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $424 +$495 +117%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $642 −$633 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $381 −$374 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $638 +$401 +63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $637 +$235 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $234 −$230 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $584 +$332 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $887 +$794 +90%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $67 +$1,015 +1519%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $320 −$312 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $421 −$326 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $137 −$28 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $76 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $127 −$22 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $221 +$242 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $239 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $60 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $355 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $373 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $332 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $138 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $252 3h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 46¢ $184 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $508 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U SELL 77¢ $693 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U BUY 36¢ $332 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $100 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $120 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $108 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $254 9d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $108 9d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $235 9d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 30¢ $143 9d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $741 9d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $144 9d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $169 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $227 13d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $694 14d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 14d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 14d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 14d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $339 14d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $102 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $696.91 · official $696.95 (match) · 86 history records