Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe668…7246 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
other 33% $0
politics 8% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 6% $0
finance 5% $0
culture 3% +$2
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -11.9% -20.3% 38% 12% -8.8%
≤90d 8 -11.9% -20.3% 38% 12% -8.8%
all 31 -1.3% -10.7% 23% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 3% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage362d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $69 +$2 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $32 −$4 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $12 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 22 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6? Jul 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27? Jun 22 $15 $0 -2%
Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 22 $18 $0 -1%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $15 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $19 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $34 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $2 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $36 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $33 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $32 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $28 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $28 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $3 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $4 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $12 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $13 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $20 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $34 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $35 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $35 27d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 97¢ $15 344d
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 344d
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 344d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.37 · official $33.37 (match) · 124 history records