Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe66a…52b9 world 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
other 25% $0
crypto 11% $0
sports 11% $0
politics 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage279d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $73 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 28 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 27 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $21 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sharon Horgan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Dram Sep 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 24m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $37 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $24 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $14 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $42 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 43¢ $41 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records