Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E6 0xe66b…30e7 sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$38 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$449
7 days+$449
14 days+$449
30 days+$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$94
other 30% +$378
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.7% +2.8% 71% 57% +4.2%
≤30d 7 +13.7% +2.8% 71% 57% +4.2%
≤90d 7 +13.7% +2.8% 71% 57% +4.2%
all 36 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 42% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 42% +3.7%
10% -17.9% 39% -6.3%
15% -25.9% 39% -15.3%
20% -33.1% 33% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$10 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage258d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 56¢ 56¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $71 +$12 +17%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $9 +$9 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $708 +$429 +61%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) Jun 25 $2,106 +$62 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -99%
Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1 +$1 +122%
Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5) Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $1 +$3 +316%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $31 +$17 +56%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $10 +$13 +127%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $10 +$13 +133%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 07 $45 +$17 +37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $5 +$12 +245%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $5 +$12 +245%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $20 +$25 +127%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $20 +$34 +170%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Oct 29 $10 −$2 -23%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $15 +$6 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Oct 29 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Oct 11 $2 +$3 +140%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 58¢ $101 11m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 76¢ $83 16m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $202 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 61¢ $506 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $9 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $50 7h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 90¢ $1,003 8h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 87¢ $1,059 8h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 90¢ $1,103 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 64¢ $71 8h
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 228d
Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $1 228d
Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid 39¢ $5 228d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $48 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 64¢ $31 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 43¢ $10 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 44¢ $10 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 44¢ $10 230d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 73¢ $45 235d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 37¢ $5 235d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 37¢ $5 235d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY Gen.G 46¢ $3 236d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 32¢ $5 237d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $5 237d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $5 237d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $5 237d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 237d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.60 · official $196.60 (match) · 74 history records