Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe66c…eee2 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$17
other 9% −$21
sports 5% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +15.1% +4.2% 61% 52% -12.8%
≤30d 31 +15.1% +4.2% 61% 52% -12.8%
≤90d 31 +15.1% +4.2% 61% 52% -12.8%
all 31 +15.1% +4.2% 61% 52% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 52% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 39% -21.1%
15% -14.9% 26% -28.7%
20% -23.3% 23% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$30 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage3d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $108 −$69 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $182 −$114 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $164 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $127 +$37 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$31 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$20 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$10 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$25 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$67 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$39 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$28 +219%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$12 -29%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +126%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$31 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$12 +63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 $0 -2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $40 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $40 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $69 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $69 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $182 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $48 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $24 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $29 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records