Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe66e…946b crypto 533 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,057 (-5%) realized −$12,022 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%199W / 318L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$432per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$219
30 days+$947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$16,762
sports 8% +$2,131
other 4% −$1,932
world 0% +$313
culture 0% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +33.0% +20.3% 75% 75% +67.8%
≤90d 324 -19.8% -27.4% 38% 33% -15.5%
all 517 -19.0% -26.7% 38% 33% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 33% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 27% -24.0%
15% -40.1% 22% -31.3%
20% -46.0% 18% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$625) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$174 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$2,315
Realized−$12,022
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses199 / 318
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions15
Markets (closed)517 / 533
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$432
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $657 $644 −$14 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 74¢ $228 $298 +$70 (+31%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 63¢ 96¢ $159 $243 +$84 (+53%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $170 $164 −$6 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $212 $154 −$58 (-27%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $156 $154 −$2 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 54¢ $154 $146 −$8 (-5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $93 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $123 $88 −$34 (-28%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $64 $36 −$28 (-43%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $52 $18 −$34 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 176 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $209 +$91 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $333 +$167 +50%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $527 +$728 +138%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $56 +$44 +79%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $25 +$85 +344%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $69 +$163 +238%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $73 +$227 +309%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $105 +$95 +90%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $139 +$111 +79%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gran May 24 $129 −$126 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $44 −$42 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $40 −$39 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $278 +$180 +65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 24 $422 +$61 +14%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $224 −$224 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $155 −$152 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $63 −$62 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $179 +$121 +67%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $388 +$349 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $73 −$72 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $132 −$130 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $17 +$34 +205%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $113 +$135 +119%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $254 +$126 +49%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $255 +$160 +63%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $608 −$600 -99%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cyprus be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $77 −$75 -97%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $44 −$42 -96%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $421 +$239 +57%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $14 +$86 +596%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $138 +$162 +117%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $368 +$132 +36%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $298 +$102 +34%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $115 −$110 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $368 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $159 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $294 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $55 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $80 1h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $15 7d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $3 7d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $231 7d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $35 7d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $29 7d
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $54 7d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $64 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $220 7d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $125 11d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $215 11d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 63¢ $161 11d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $66 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $174 11d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $209 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 11d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 33¢ $337 28d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 74¢ $190 28d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand BUY No 22¢ $25 34d
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand BUY Yes 24¢ $15 34d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand BUY Yes 29¢ $69 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,314.75 · official $2,314.75 (match) · 3500 history records