Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E6 0xe674…6aa6 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,070 (-24%) realized −$930 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$646per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,146
other 18% +$1,528
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +19.6% +8.2% 25% 25% +8.1%
≤30d 4 +19.6% +8.2% 25% 25% +8.1%
≤90d 4 +19.6% +8.2% 25% 25% +8.1%
all 4 +19.6% +8.2% 25% 25% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.2% 25% +8.1%
10% ← realistic here -2.1% 25% -2.3%
15% -11.6% 25% -11.7%
20% -20.2% 25% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,628 vs −$369 · ×4.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized−$930
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$646
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 58¢ 58¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 56¢ 30¢ $300 $161 −$139 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $511 +$1,628 +318%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,777 −$706 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.06 · official $660.06 · 14 history records