Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E6 0xe678…7f8f sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$150 (+1%) realized +$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate73%64W / 24L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$11
crypto 37% +$3
sports 7% +$159
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 88 +10.6% +0.1% 73% 27% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 27% -8.6%
10% -9.5% 25% -17.3%
15% -18.2% 24% -25.3%
20% -26.2% 24% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses64 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage595d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 18? May 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13? May 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 10 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 23? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 26? Mar 06 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 3? Feb 04 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 30? Jan 31 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 9? Jan 11 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 1? Jan 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 25? Dec 26 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 11? Dec 12 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 29? Nov 30 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 13? Nov 13 $218 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 11? Nov 12 $209 $0 +0%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Nov 01 $25 +$7 +27%
James Madison vs. Texas State Oct 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Commanders vs. Chiefs Oct 28 $15 +$2 +16%
Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5 Oct 24 $28 +$26 +92%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 21 $40 $0 +0%
Steelers vs. Bengals Oct 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Oct 17 $19 +$11 +59%
Spread: Delaware Blue Hens (-3.5) Oct 16 $47 −$2 -4%
Eagles vs. Giants Oct 10 $10 +$35 +354%
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Oct 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Mariners vs. Tigers Oct 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $52 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $51 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $51 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $51 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $99 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $100 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $99 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $100 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $101 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $154 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $153 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $152 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $148 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $153 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $151 144d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 3? BUY No 100¢ $149 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $148 148d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 30? BUY No 100¢ $149 150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $152 159d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 9? BUY No 100¢ $152 171d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 179d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 186d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.30 · official $51.30 (match) · 221 history records