Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe67c…33f2 other 119 markets active 2d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-1%) realized −$33 · open −$54
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$3,857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$468
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$221
sports 35% +$95
world 13% −$31
politics 1% +$3
finance 1% −$5
tech 1% +$55
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +17.7% +6.4% 63% 63% +7.8%
≤30d 62 -9.7% -18.3% 44% 44% -11.2%
≤90d 62 -9.7% -18.3% 44% 44% -11.2%
all 62 -9.7% -18.3% 44% 44% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 44% -11.2%
10% -26.1% 34% -19.7%
15% -33.3% 29% -27.5%
20% -39.8% 24% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$31 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3,857
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions57
Markets (closed)62 / 119
History coverage10d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $150 $162 +$12 (+8%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $142 $150 +$8 (+5%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 93¢ 99¢ $138 $148 +$10 (+7%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 78¢ $96 $138 +$42 (+44%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $124 $130 +$6 (+5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 69¢ $142 $123 −$19 (-13%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 39¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $98 $91 −$7 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $74 $85 +$11 (+15%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 94¢ $55 $84 +$29 (+52%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 93¢ $75 $79 +$4 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ 99¢ $45 $72 +$27 (+60%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $66 $71 +$5 (+8%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 73¢ $63 $68 +$5 (+7%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $76 $67 −$9 (-12%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $72 $65 −$7 (-9%)
Les Wexner charged by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $66 $62 −$4 (-6%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 68¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 52¢ $49 $58 +$9 (+19%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? No 41¢ 90¢ $23 $50 +$27 (+120%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +165%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 16 $53 +$14 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $56 +$23 +40%
Set 1 Winner: Arnaldi vs Cobolli Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $32 +$75 +233%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $67 +$7 +11%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $54 +$10 +19%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -98%
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Otto Virtanen: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $16 +$7 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $34 +$23 +66%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 +$64 +125%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $77 −$75 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $63 −$62 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 12 $66 +$12 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $75 +$16 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $67 +$29 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $66 +$37 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $53 +$53 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $203 +$116 +57%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $46 +$16 +35%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 11 $37 +$55 +149%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $97 −$96 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $51 +$41 +81%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $150 +$20 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $75 +$13 +18%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$1 -7%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 11 $23 −$1 -6%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 11 $11 +$11 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 11 $50 +$15 +29%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $84 −$34 -41%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $65 +$58 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $53 +$71 +134%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 11 $72 +$57 +79%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 11 $136 +$140 +103%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $41 −$41 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 10 $34 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $60 −$59 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $19 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $67 38h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $54 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $24 38h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 38h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $31 38h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 41¢ $44 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 86¢ $24 38h
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $69 38h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $28 38h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $17 38h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $52 38h
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Otto Virtanen: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $33 38h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 85¢ $28 4d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $11 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 45¢ $34 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 37¢ $35 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $55 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $34 4d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 70¢ $63 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $66 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 33¢ $10 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 50¢ $46 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $48 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $39 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $77 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $56 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,857.38 · official $3,858.76 (match) · 178 history records