Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe67f…811f world 37 markets active 3d ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$3
other 21% +$1
politics 13% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.0% -11.4% 14% 14% -10.5%
≤30d 15 -1.1% -10.5% 13% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 15 -1.1% -10.5% 13% 7% -10.2%
all 37 -0.5% -10.0% 24% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage264d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $6 +$1 +19%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $52 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -32%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 19 $27 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $27 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mediterranean Sea Rescue organizations win the Nobel Peace Prize Oct 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 01 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by less than 30%? Sep 25 $1 $0 -23%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $29 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $25 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $25 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $27 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $9 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $24 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $7 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $28 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $28 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $6 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $22 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $28 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $6 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records