Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe683…532c crypto 1194 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$624 (+6%) realized +$626 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%660W / 600L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day71.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$237
14 days−$264
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$496
sports 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -52.9% -57.4% 36% 24% -20.5%
≤30d 544 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 43% -16.8%
≤90d 1260 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 38% -15.4%
all 1260 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 38% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 38% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 27% -23.5%
15% -28.4% 16% -30.9%
20% -35.5% 7% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$626
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses660 / 600
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1260 / 1194
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day71.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 63¢ 28¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $95 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $85 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $93 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $90 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $79 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $93 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $91 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $64 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.38 · official $4.17 · 3500 history records