Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe687…666e crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$27
other 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 41% -6.8%
≤30d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 41% -6.8%
≤90d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 41% -6.8%
all 17 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 41% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 41% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 24% -15.7%
15% -26.4% 6% -23.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $107 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $43 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$10 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$9 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $82 −$28 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $88 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $39 +$8 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$6 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$5 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $57 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $57 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $49 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $49 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $43 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $48 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records