Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe688…02d4 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate96%67W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$51
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +8.8% -1.5% 100% 16% -1.1%
≤30d 70 +5.1% -4.9% 96% 27% -9.0%
≤90d 70 +5.1% -4.9% 96% 27% -9.0%
all 70 +5.1% -4.9% 96% 27% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 27% -9.0%
10% -14.0% 3% -17.7%
15% -22.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -30.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$40 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses67 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage15d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$3 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$5 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$4 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$6 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $41 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $16 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $37 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records