Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe689…0418 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,578 (+23%) realized +$1,507 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$92
14 days+$103
30 days+$800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,281
crypto 23% +$71
world 14% +$99
other 9% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 38% -14.1%
≤30d 30 +5.6% -4.5% 53% 40% +10.1%
≤90d 35 +5.3% -4.7% 57% 43% +13.4%
all 35 +5.3% -4.7% 57% 43% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 43% +13.4%
10% -13.8% 34% +2.5%
15% -22.2% 29% -7.4%
20% -29.8% 26% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$32 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$895
Realized+$1,507
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage55d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $564 $598 +$34 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $41 $100 +$59 (+144%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $92 $99 +$7 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $92 $99 +$7 (+7%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 14¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $35 +$1 +4%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $46 −$11 -24%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $13 $0 -0%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $92 −$81 -89%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $58 −$57 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $11 +$7 +64%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $25 +$11 +45%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $89 −$30 -34%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $23 +$77 +335%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $53 +$47 +89%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $34 +$66 +194%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $66 +$3 +4%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $65 +$35 +54%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $60 +$40 +67%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $96 −$4 -4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $571 +$90 +16%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $805 +$195 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $460 +$540 +117%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $67 +$133 +197%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $494 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 29 $188 +$9 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $810 +$90 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $191 +$9 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 04 $740 +$260 +35%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $538 +$362 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 14¢ $7 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 14¢ $29 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $51 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 36¢ $36 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $35 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $35 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $13 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $12 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $0 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 18h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $17 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $895.33 · official $895.33 (match) · 145 history records