Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe68a…5a2b other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$640 (-12%) realized −$640 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%64W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,741
7 days−$2,621
14 days−$2,570
30 days−$2,570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$711
sports 34% +$74
world 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -74.9% -77.3% 10% 8% -80.5%
≤30d 112 -69.9% -72.8% 12% 10% -78.6%
≤90d 112 -69.9% -72.8% 12% 10% -78.6%
all 171 -7.7% -16.5% 37% 36% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 36% -19.7%
10% -24.5% 35% -27.4%
15% -31.8% 35% -34.4%
20% -38.5% 34% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late -94% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$29 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses64 / 107
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage278d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 +$38 +123%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Rangers vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Bologna end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BSC Young Boys vs. Panathinaikos end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Braga vs. Feyenoord end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Sociedad vs. Mallorca end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. FCSB end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Dinamo Zagreb vs. Fenerbahce end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Utrecht vs. Lyon end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nice vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lille vs. Brann end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sport-Club Freiburg vs. FC Basel end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-05? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bologna vs. Genoa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Werder Bremen vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sevilla vs. Villarreal end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Augsburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Girona vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Malmo FF vs. Ludogorets end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO1) Jun 18 $65 +$3 +5%
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-05? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-26? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2025-11-02? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-03? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $6 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 98¢ $49 18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $40 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 18¢ $6 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $40 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $15 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $6 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $13 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 39h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $21 43h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $40 44h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $16 44h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $19 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 18¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $11 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $0 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $0 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $2 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $40 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 41¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 385 history records