Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe68a…a5a7 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$57 (+5%) realized +$45 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%29W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days−$27
14 days+$244
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$32
sports 32% +$61
politics 14% +$94
crypto 1% −$13
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -23.4% -30.7% 16% 16% -17.6%
≤30d 117 +11.8% +1.1% 24% 24% -3.2%
≤90d 117 +11.8% +1.1% 24% 24% -3.2%
all 118 +12.2% +1.5% 25% 25% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 25% +4.2%
10% -8.2% 25% -5.7%
15% -17.1% 25% -14.8%
20% -25.2% 24% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$7 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses29 / 89
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)118 / 125
History coverage601d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Over 35¢ 64¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+84%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Paraguay to score first vs. Germany? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$70 +344%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 +$40 +784%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $15 +$33 +216%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $3 +$11 +365%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Panama to score first vs. England? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 +$43 +278%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$17 +325%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +344%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 22 $4 +$7 +184%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$8 +388%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Paraguay to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $3 45h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $15 45h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $21 45h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Panama to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $26 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.37 · official $46.55 (match) · 160 history records