Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe692…2431 tech 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$649 (-45%) realized −$618 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$484
tech 35% +$104
world 22% −$313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-57.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -98.1% -98.3% 0% 0% -97.0%
≤30d 8 -53.5% -57.9% 25% 25% -55.7%
≤90d 8 -53.5% -57.9% 25% 25% -55.7%
all 8 -53.5% -57.9% 25% 25% -55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.9% 25% -55.7%
10% -61.9% 25% -59.9%
15% -65.6% 25% -63.8%
20% -69.0% 12% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$155 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$618
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage19d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $67 $53 −$14 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $67 $50 −$17 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $453 −$427 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 17 $313 −$313 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $186 +$87 +47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $154 +$184 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 6d
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 4¢ $26 6d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $158 6d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $295 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 13¢ $35 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $70 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $69 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $208 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 0¢ $0 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 100¢ $273 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $337 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 5¢ $2 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 67¢ $33 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 13¢ $16 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 5¢ $21 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 13¢ $14 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 66¢ $153 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 44¢ $154 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $114 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.01 · official $103.01 (match) · 35 history records