Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe694…8458 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 639d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+0%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate83%86W / 18L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$43
economics 46% +$2
crypto 1% −$9
politics 1% −$1
sports 1% +$121
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 104 +5.3% -4.7% 83% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 29% -9.4%
10% -13.8% 24% -18.1%
15% -22.2% 19% -26.0%
20% -29.8% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

639d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses86 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage639d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BNB reach $900 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January? Mar 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Mar 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will Mirassol FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-19? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-19? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Jets vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-19? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5 Oct 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Kraken vs. Senators Oct 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? Oct 29 $5 +$1 +25%
Will SC Internacional vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Oct 29 $5 +$2 +32%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? Oct 29 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? Oct 29 $5 +$2 +45%
Will SC Internacional win on 2025-10-18? Oct 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-18? Oct 29 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-10-18? Oct 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-19? Oct 29 $10 +$4 +39%
Will SC Recife win on 2025-10-18? Oct 29 $15 +$3 +19%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-18? Oct 29 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-18? Oct 29 $15 +$6 +43%
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5) Oct 29 $15 +$6 +43%
Spread: Senators (-1.5) Oct 29 $15 +$7 +49%
Avalanche vs. Blue Jackets Oct 29 $15 +$10 +67%
Panthers vs. Devils Oct 29 $15 +$10 +70%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5 Oct 29 $15 +$10 +70%
Predators vs. Canadiens Oct 29 $15 +$10 +70%
Predators vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Oct 29 $15 +$11 +75%
Panthers vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 Oct 29 $15 +$11 +75%
Spread: Devils (-1.5) Oct 29 $10 +$16 +163%
Jets vs. Flyers Oct 29 $15 +$11 +75%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Oct 29 $15 +$12 +79%
Kraken vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 Oct 29 $15 +$12 +82%
Spread: Jets (-1.5) Oct 29 $10 +$18 +178%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Oct 29 $15 +$22 +144%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 16 $100 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 16 $23,766 $0 +0%
Will MAS-IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputi Sep 14 $131 +$2 +1%
Will Racing Bulls have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Be Aug 02 $142 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting? Jul 11 $120 $0 +0%
Will Nacionalista win the most seats in the House of Representatives i Jun 03 $128 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 04 $8 $0 +4%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 04 $119 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BNB reach $900 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 1h
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 44d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $80 57d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $80 102d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $42 161d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 161d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $81 198d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 100¢ $33 218d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 218d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 100¢ $81 236d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-19? BUY No 67¢ $10 247d
Will Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $5 247d
Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 247d
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-19? BUY No 61¢ $10 247d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-19? BUY No 72¢ $10 247d
Will Mirassol FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 247d
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 91¢ $10 247d
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $5 247d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-18? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 247d
Will SC Recife win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 84¢ $15 247d
Will SC Internacional win on 2025-10-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 247d
Will SC Internacional vs. SC Recife end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $5 247d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $5 247d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 79¢ $15 247d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 247d
Jets vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 248d
Spread: Jets (-1.5) BUY Jets 36¢ $10 248d
Jets vs. Flyers BUY Jets 57¢ $15 248d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 248d
Kraken vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.57 · official $80.57 (match) · 259 history records