Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe699…3abf world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$12
14 days+$26
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$9
world 36% +$13
politics 13% $0
sports 11% +$2
finance 3% +$6
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 31 +22.8% +11.1% 52% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 38 +18.5% +7.2% 53% 5% -9.2%
all 75 +4.1% -5.8% 41% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 5% -9.3%
10% -14.8% 1% -18.0%
15% -23.0% 1% -25.9%
20% -30.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage488d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $172 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $228 +$1 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $168 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $190 +$1 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $218 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $136 +$14 +10%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $158 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $159 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $177 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +13%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $67 +$7 +10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $161 +$2 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $164 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $145 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $161 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $145 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $253 +$3 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $324 +$6 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $307 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $156 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $302 −$9 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $160 −$3 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $71 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $167 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,122 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,060 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $5 $0 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $1,167 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Dec 11 $7 $0 +4%
Will Ronnie Brunswijk be the next president of Suriname after the elec Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $9 −$8 -89%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 18 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $6 35m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $166 35m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $172 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $95 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $153 24h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $188 37h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $185 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $168 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $168 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $144 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $168 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $33 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $63 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $63 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $106 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.86 · official $1.27 (match) · 302 history records