Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe69a…4c19 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-5%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$34
14 days+$29
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$51
sports 49% −$69
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 50% +9.8%
≤30d 26 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 38% -7.0%
≤90d 55 -14.4% -22.5% 45% 42% -13.0%
all 55 -14.4% -22.5% 45% 42% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 42% -13.0%
10% -30.0% 38% -21.3%
15% -36.7% 33% -28.9%
20% -42.9% 22% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage66d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 +$9 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +59%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$6 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $4 $0 -7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $6 −$3 -44%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $3 +$1 +35%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $1 −$1 -51%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $5 −$4 -76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $8 +$5 +63%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $5 −$5 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals May 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros May 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 05 $13 +$7 +50%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 03 $10 +$4 +38%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +16%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $8 −$8 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 30 $5 +$2 +33%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 30 $7 −$3 -36%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 29 $6 −$6 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $15 +$11 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 26 $23 +$11 +46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $17 +$6 +37%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $13 +$14 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 94¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $33 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $8 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $5 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $17 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.25 · official $5.25 (match) · 91 history records