Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe69b…f5e9 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$50
sports 41% +$8
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +18.4% +7.1% 77% 77% -11.9%
≤30d 19 +5.4% -4.6% 68% 68% -13.3%
≤90d 23 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 57% -15.4%
all 23 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 57% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 57% -15.4%
10% -21.8% 48% -23.5%
15% -29.4% 30% -30.9%
20% -36.3% 22% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$26 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage47d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$12 +64%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $77 −$58 -75%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $19 +$5 +26%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $38 +$15 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $56 +$56 +100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $27 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$20 +93%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $63 +$18 +29%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $42 +$21 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $7 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $19 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $19 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $37 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $19 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $112 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $35 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $35 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records