Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E6 0xe69b…a03a world 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,026 (-23%) realized −$3,002 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,222per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$1,480
other 22% −$1,328
politics 4% −$167
sports 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 100% +3.5%
≤30d 1 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 100% +3.5%
≤90d 10 -25.7% -32.8% 50% 20% -30.2%
all 10 -25.7% -32.8% 50% 20% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 20% -30.2%
10% -39.2% 0% -36.8%
15% -45.1% 0% -42.9%
20% -50.5% 0% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$675 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized−$3,002
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,222
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 90¢ 84¢ $400 $376 −$24 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $351 +$50 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $693 −$693 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 07 $644 +$49 +8%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $2,400 +$133 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $2,254 −$1,682 -75%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Mar 29 $514 −$167 -32%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $2,755 +$55 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Mar 28 $1,531 −$34 -2%
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? Mar 28 $900 −$799 -89%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Mar 28 $1,000 +$113 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $401 29m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $402 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $351 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $693 73d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 58¢ $693 73d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $644 77d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $644 77d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $572 81d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $572 81d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2,244 81d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 81d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $1,888 81d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $199 82d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $294 82d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,335 82d
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $347 82d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $988 82d
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $504 82d
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 82d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 93¢ $514 82d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 92¢ $1,496 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 87¢ $1,496 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 89¢ $215 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 89¢ $1,316 83d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $1,308 83d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $595 83d
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? SELL No 2¢ $102 83d
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? BUY No 9¢ $59 83d
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? BUY No 9¢ $100 83d
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? BUY No 8¢ $100 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.56 · official $375.56 (match) · 41 history records